AVIATION FORECASTS

Observed weather condition reports are often used in the creation of forecasts for the same area. A variety of different forecast products are produced and designed to be used in the preflight planning stage. The printed forecasts that pilots need to be familiar with are the terminal aerodrome forecast (TAF), aviation area forecast (FA), in-flight weather advisories (SIGMET, AIRMET), and the winds and temperatures aloft forecast (FD).

TERMINAL AERODROME FORECASTS (TAF)
A terminal aerodrome forecast is a report established for the 5 statute mile radius around an airport. TAF reports are usually given for larger airports. Each TAF is valid for a 24-hour time period, and is updated four times a day at 0000Z, 0600Z, 1200Z, and 1800Z. The TAF utilizes the same descriptors and abbreviations as used in the METAR report.

The terminal forecast includes the following information in sequential order:

1. Type of Report—A TAF can be either a routine forecast (TAF) or an amended forecast (TAF AMD).
2. ICAO Station Identifier—The station identifier is the same as that used in a METAR.
3. Date and Time of Origin—Time and date of TAF origination is given in the six-number code with the first two being the date, the last four being the time. Time is always given in UTC as denoted by the Z following the number group.
4. Valid Period Date and Time—The valid forecast time period is given by a six-digit number group. The first two numbers indicate the date, followed by the two-digit beginning time for the valid period, and the last two digits are the ending time.
5. Forecast Wind—The wind direction and speed forecast are given in a five-digit number group. The first three indicate the direction of the wind in reference to true north. The last two digits state the windspeed in knots as denoted by the letters "KT." Like the METAR, winds greater than 99 knots are given in three digits.
6. Forecast Visibility—The forecast visibility is given in statute miles and may be in whole numbers or fractions. If the forecast is greater than 6 miles, it will be coded as "P6SM."
7. Forecast Significant Weather—Weather phenomenon is coded in the TAF reports in the same format as the METAR. If no significant weather is expected during the forecast time period, the denotation "NSW" will be included in the "becoming" or "temporary" weather groups.
8. Forecast Sky Condition—Forecast sky conditions are given in the same manner as the METAR. Only cumulonimbus (CB) clouds are forecast in this portion of the TAF report as opposed to CBs and towering cumulus in the METAR.
9. Forecast Change Group—For any significant weather change forecast to occur during the TAF time period, the expected conditions and time period are included in thisgroup. This information may be shown as From (FM), Becoming (BECMG), and Temporary (TEMPO). "From" is used when a rapid and significant change, usually within an hour, is expected. "Becoming" is used when a gradual change in the weather is expected over a period of no more than 2 hours. "Temporary" is used for temporary fluctuations of weather, expected to last for less than an hour.
10. Probability Forecast—The probability forecast is given percentage that describes the probability of thunderstorms and precipitation occurring in the coming hours. This forecast is not used for the first 6 hours of the 24-hour forecast.

Example:
TAF
KPIR 111130Z 111212 15012KT P6SM BKN090
TEMPO 1214 5SM BR
FM1500 16015G25KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
FM0000 14012KT P6SM BKN080 OVC150 PROB40
0004 3SM TSRA BKN030CB
FM0400 1408KT P6SM SCT040 OVC080 TEMPO
0408 3SM TSRA OVC030CB
BECMG 0810 32007KT=

Explanation:
Routine TAF for Pierre, South Dakota...on the 11th day of the month, at 1130Z...valid for 24 hours from 1200Z on the 11th to 1200Z on the 12th ...wind from 150° at 12 knots...visibility greater than 6 statute miles...broken clouds at 9,000 feet...temporarily, between 1200Z and 1400Z, visibility 5 statute miles in mist...from 1500Z winds from 160° at 15 knots, gusting to 25 knots visibility greater than 6 statute miles...clouds scattered at 4,000 feet and broken at 25,000 feet...from 0000Z wind from 140° at 12 knots...visibility greater than 6 statute miles...clouds broken at 8,000 feet, overcast at 15,000 feet...between 0000Z and 0400Z, there is 40 percent probability of visibility 3 statute miles...thunderstorm with moderate rain showers...clouds broken at 3,000 feet with cumulonimbus clouds...from 0400Z...winds from 140° at 8 knots...visibility greater than 6 miles...clouds at 4,000 scattered and overcast at 8,000...temporarily between 0400Z and 0800Z...visibility 3 miles...thunderstorms with moderate rain showers...clouds overcast at 3,000 feet with cumulonimbus clouds...becoming between 0800Z and 1000Z...wind from 320° at 7 knots...end of report (=).

AREA FORECASTS (FA)
The aviation area forecast (FA) gives a picture of clouds, general weather conditions, and visual meteorological conditions (VMC) expected over a large area encompassing several states. There are six areas for which area forecasts are published in the contiguous 48 states. Area forecasts are issued three times a day and are valid for 18 hours. This type of forecast gives information vital to en route operations as well as forecast information for smaller airports that do not have terminal forecasts.

Area forecasts are typically disseminated in four sections and include the following information:

1. Header—This gives the location identifier of the source of the FA, the date and time of issuance, the valid forecast time, and the area of coverage.

Example:
DFWC FA 120945
SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX
SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL 130400
CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL 122200…OTLK VALID
122200-130400
OK TX AR LA MS AL AND CSTL WTRS

Explanation:
The area forecast shows information given by Dallas Fort Worth, for the region of Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, as well as a portion of the gulf coastal waters. It was issued on the 12th day of the month at 0945. The synopsis is valid from the time of issuance until 0400 hours on the 13th. VFR clouds and weather information on this area forecast is valid until 2200 hours on the 12th and the outlook is valid until 0400 hours on the 13th.

2. Precautionary Statements—IFR conditions, mountain obscurations, and thunderstorm hazards are described in this section. Statements made here regarding height are given in MSL, and if given otherwise, AGL or CIG (ceiling) will be noted.

Example:
SEE AIRMET SIERRA FOR IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCN.
TS IMPLY SEV OR GTR TURB SEV ICE LLWS AND IFR CONDS.
NON MSL HGTS DENOTED BYAGL OR CIG.

Explanation:
The area forecast covers VFR clouds and weather, so the precautionary statement warns that AIRMET Sierra should be referenced for IFR conditions and mountain obscuration. The code TS indicates the possibility of thunderstorms and implies there may be an occurrence of severe or greater turbulence, severe icing, low-level wind shear, and IFR conditions. The final line of the precautionary statement alerts the user that heights, for the most part, are mean sea level (MSL). Those that are not MSL will be above ground level (AGL) or ceiling (CIG).

3. Synopsis—The synopsis gives a brief summary identifying the location and movement of pressure systems, fronts, and circulation patterns.

Example:
SYNOPSIS…LOW PRES TROF 10Z OK/TX PNHDL
AREA FCST MOV EWD INTO CNTRL-SWRN OK
BY 04Z. WRMFNT 10Z CNTRL OK-SRN AR-NRN
MS FCST LIFT NWD INTO NERN OK-NRN AR
EXTRM NRN MS BY 04Z.

Explanation:
As of 1000 Zulu, there is a low pressure trough over the Oklahoma and Texas panhandle area, which is forecast to move eastward into central southwestern Oklahoma by 0400 Zulu. A warm front located over central Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and northern Mississippi at 1000 Zulu is forecast to lift northwestward into northeastern Oklahoma, northern Arkansas, and extreme northern Mississippi by 0400 Zulu.

4. VFR Clouds and Weather—This section lists expected sky conditions, visibility, and weather for the next 12 hours and an outlook for the following 6 hours.

Example:
S CNTRL AND SERN TX
AGL SCT-BKN010. TOPS 030. VIS 3-5SM BR.
14-16Z BECMG AGL SCT030. 19Z AGL SCT050.
OTLK…VFR
OK
PNDLAND NW…AGL SCT030 SCT-BKN100.
TOPS FL200.
15Z AGL SCT040 SCT100. AFT 20Z SCT TSRA
DVLPG..FEW POSS SEV. CB TOPS FL450.
OTLK…VFR

Explanation:
In south central and southeastern Texas, there is a scattered to broken layer of clouds from 1,000 feet AGL with tops at 3,000 feet, visibility is 3 to 5 statute miles in mist. Between 1400 Zulu and 1600 Zulu, the cloud bases are expected to increase to 3,000 feet AGL.
After 1900 Zulu, the cloud bases are expected to continue to increase to 5,000 feet AGL and the outlook is VFR.
In northwestern Oklahoma and panhandle, the clouds are scattered at 3,000 feet with another scattered to broken layer at 10,000 feet AGL, with the tops at 20,000 feet. At 1500 Zulu, the lowest cloud base is expected to increase to 4,000 feet AGL with a scattered layer at 10,000 feet AGL. After 2000 Zulu, the forecast calls for scattered thunderstorms with rain developing and a few becoming severe; the cumulonimbus clouds will have tops at flight level 450 or 45,000 feet MSL.
It should be noted that when information is given in the area forecast, locations may be given by states, regions, or specific geological features such as mountain ranges. Figure 11-6 shows an area-forecast chart with six regions of forecast, states, regional areas, and common geographical features.

IN-FLIGHT WEATHER ADVISORIES
In-flight weather advisories, which are provided to en route aircraft, are forecasts that detail potentially hazardous weather. These advisories are also available to pilots prior to departure for flight planning purposes.

An in-flight weather advisory is issued in the form of either an AIRMET, SIGMET, or Convective SIGMET.

AIRMAN'S METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION (AIRMET)
AIRMETs (WAs) are examples of in-flight weather advisories that are issued every 6 hours with intermediate updates issued as needed for a particular area forecast region. The information contained in an AIRMET is of operational interest to all aircraft, but the weather section concerns phenomena considered potentially hazardous to light aircraft and aircraft with limited operational capabilities.

An AIRMET includes forecast of moderate icing, moderate turbulence, sustained surface winds of 30 knots or greater, widespread areas of ceilings less than 1,000 feet and/or visibilities less than 3 miles, and extensive mountain obscurement.

Each AIRMET bulletin has a fixed alphanumeric designator, numbered sequentially for easy identification, beginning with the first issuance of the day. SIERRA is the AIRMET code used to denote instrument flight rules (IFR) and mountain obscuration; TANGO is used to denote turbulence, strong surface winds, and low-level wind shear; and ZULU is used to denote icing and freezing levels.

Example:
DFWTWA 241650
AIRMET TANGO UPDT 3 FOR TURBC… STG
SFC WINDS AND LLWS VALID UNTIL 242000
AIRMET TURBC… OK TX…UPDT
FROM OKC TO DFW TO SAT TO MAF TO CDS
TO OKC OCNL MDT TURBC BLO 60 DUE TO
STG AND GUSTY LOW LVL WINDS. CONDS
CONTG BYD 2000Z

Explanation:
This AIRMET was issued by Dallas Fort Worth on the 24th day of the month, at 1650 Zulu time. On this third update, the AIRMET Tango is issued for turbulence, strong surface winds, and low-level wind shear until 2000 Zulu on the same day. The turbulence section of the AIRMET is an update for Oklahoma and Texas. It defines an area from Oklahoma City to Dallas, Texas, to San Antonio, to Midland, Texas, to Childress, Texas, to Oklahoma City that will experience occasional moderate turbulence below 6,000 feet due to strong and gusty low-level winds. It also notes that these conditions are forecast to continue beyond 2000 Zulu.

SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION (SIGMET)
SIGMETs (WSs) are in-flight advisories concerning non-convective weather that is potentially hazardous to all aircraft. They report weather forecasts that include severe icing not associated with thunderstorms, severe or extreme turbulence or clear air turbulence (CAT) not associated with thunderstorms, dust storms or sandstorms that lower surface or in-flight visibilities to below 3 miles, and volcanic ash.

SIGMETs are unscheduled forecasts that are valid for 4 hours, but if the SIGMET relates to hurricanes, it is valid for 6 hours.

A SIGMET is issued under an alphabetic identifier, from November through Yankee, excluding Sierra and Tango. The first issuance of a SIGMET is designated as a UWS, or Urgent Weather SIGMET. Re-issued SIGMETs for the same weather phenomenon are sequentially numbered until the weather phenomenon ends.

Example:
SFOR WS 100130
SIGMET ROME02 VALID UNTIL 100530
OR WA
FROM SEA TO PDT TO EUG TO SEA
OCNL MOGR CAT BTN 280 AND 350 EXPCD
DUE TO JTSTR.
CONDS BGNG AFT 0200Z CONTG BYD 0530Z .

Explanation:
This is SIGMET Romeo 2, the second issuance for this weather phenomenon. It is valid until the 10th day of the month at 0530 Zulu time. This SIGMET is for Oregon and Washington, for a defined area from Seattle to Portland to Eugene to Seattle. It calls for occasional moderate or greater clear air turbulence between 28,000 and 35,000 feet due to the location of the jetstream. These conditions will be beginning after 0200 Zulu and will continue beyond the forecast scope of this SIGMET of 0530 Zulu.

CONVECTIVE SIGNIFICANT METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION (WST)
A Convective SIGMET (WST) is an in-flight weather advisory issued for hazardous convective weather that affects the safety of every flight. Convective SIGMETs are issued for severe thunderstorms with surface winds greater than 50 knots, hail at the surface greater than or equal to 3/4 inch in diameter, or tornadoes.

They are also issued to advise pilots of embedded thunderstorms, lines of thunderstorms, or thunderstorms with heavy or greater precipitation that affect 40 percent or more of a 3,000 square foot or greater region.

Convective SIGMETs are issued for each area of the contiguous 48 states but not Alaska or Hawaii.

Convective SIGMETs are issued for the eastern (E), western (W), and central (C) United States. Each report is issued at 55 minutes past the hour, but special reports can be issued during the interim for any reason. Each forecast is valid for 2 hours. They are numbered sequentially each day from 1-99, beginning at 00 Zulu time. If no hazardous weather exists, the Convective SIGMET will still be issued; however, it will state "CONVECTIVE SIGMET…. NONE."

Example:
MKCC WST 221855
CONVECTIVE SIGMET 21C
VALID UNTIL 2055
KS OK TX
VCNTY GLD-CDS LINE
NO SGFNT TSTMS RPRTD
LINE TSTMS DVLPG BY 1955Z WILL MOV EWD
30-35 KT THRU 2055Z
HAIL TO 2 IN PSBL

Explanation:
This Convective SIGMET provides the following information: The WST indicates this report is a Convective SIGMET. The current date is the 22nd of the month and it was issued at 1855 Zulu. It is Convective SIGMET number 21C, indicating that it is the 21st consecutive report issued for the central United States. This report is valid for 2 hours until 2055 Zulu time. The Convective SIGMET is for an area from Kansas to Oklahoma to Texas, in the vicinity of a line from Goodland, Kansas, to Childress, Texas. No significant thunderstorms are being reported, but a line of thunderstorms will develop by 1955 Zulu time and will move eastward at a rate of 30-35 knots through 2055 Zulu. Hail up to 2 inches in size is possible with the developing thunderstorms.

WINDS AND TEMPERATURE ALOFT FORECAST (FD)
Winds and temperatures aloft forecasts provide wind and temperature forecasts for specific locations in the contiguous United States, including network locations in Hawaii and Alaska. The forecasts are made twice a day based on the radiosonde upper air observations taken at 0000Z and 1200Z.

Through 12,000 feet are true altitudes and above 18,000 feet are pressure altitudes. Wind direction is always in reference to true north and windspeed is given in knots. The temperature is given in degrees Celsius. No winds are forecast when a given level is within 1,500 feet of the station elevation. Similarly, temperatures are not forecast for any station within 2,500 feet of the station elevation.

If the windspeed is forecast to be greater than 100 knots but less than 199 knots, the computer adds 50 to the direction and subtracts 100 from the speed. To decode this type of data group, the reverse must be accomplished. For example, when the data appears as "731960," subtract 50 from the 73 and add 100 to the 19, and the wind would be 230° at 119 knots with a temperature of –60°C. If the windspeed is forecast to be 200 knots or greater, the wind group is coded as 99 knots. For example, when the data appears as "7799," subtract 50 from 77 and add 100 to 99, and the wind is 270° at 199 knots or greater. When the forecast windspeed is calm or less than 5 knots, the data group is coded "9900," which means light and variable.

Forecast Table

FD KWBC 151640 BASED ON 151200Z DATA VALID 151800Z FOR USE 1700-2100Z TEMPS NEGATIVE ABV 24000
FD AMA DEN	3000	6000 2714	9000 2725+00 2321-04	12000 2625-04 2532-08	18000 2531-15 2434-19	24000 2542-27 2441-31	30000 265842 235347

Explanation of Forecast Table:
The heading indicates that this FD was transmitted on the 15th of the month at 1640Z and is based on the 1200 Zulu radiosonde. The valid time is 1800 Zulu on the same day and should be used for the period between 1700Z and 2100Z. The heading also indicates that the temperatures above 24,000 feet MSL are negative.

Since the temperatures above 24,000 feet are negative, the minus sign is omitted.

A 4-digit data group shows the wind direction in reference to true north, and the windspeed in knots. The elevation at Amarillo, TX (AMA) is 3,605 feet, so the lowest reportable altitude is 6,000 feet for the forecast winds. In this case, "2714" means the wind is forecast to be from 270° at a speed of 14 knots.

A 6-digit group includes the forecast temperature aloft.

The elevation at Denver (DEN) is 5,431 feet, so the lowest reportable altitude is 9,000 feet for the winds and temperature forecast. In this case, "2321-04" indicates the wind is forecast to be from 230° at a speed of 21 knots with a temperature of –4°C.